System dynamics to analyze scenarios of electric cars insertion in brazilian cities

Autores/as

  • Glauco Oliveira Rodrigues UFSM
  • André Munzlinger Instituto Federal de Educação Ciência e Tecnologia Catarinense
  • Rafael Pereira Ocampo More UFSC
  • Nanachara Carolina Sperb Instituto Federal Catarinense (IFC)

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.20397/2177-6652/2024.v24i4.2628

Palabras clave:

Electric cars, Systems dynamics, Sustainability

Resumen

This article presents the use of system dynamics to analyze the impact of electric cars in Brazilian cities. The developed simulation model can be used to predict the population growth of any Brazilian region based on the logic of stocks and flows. The model also includes an environmental impact analysis, considering CO2 emissions from different vehicle types and fuel sources. The financial model takes into account the cost of recharging electric vehicles during peak and off-peak periods. The importance of expanding the use of EVs in the country to promote sustainable development and reduce harmful emissions is emphasized. The EV20 scenario foresees a cost reduction of around 118 trillion reais with the insertion of electric cars, reducing maintenance costs and saving citizens money. The study confirms that the insertion of electric cars will reduce the amount of CO2 released into the atmosphere. The research used computer modeling and variables such as the number of cars and their average CO2 emissions. The model is open and can be expanded to any Brazilian city. Limitations include not measuring the environmental impact of battery use and not analyzing the possibility of using hybrid electric cars. Future work includes addressing these limitations and increasing the analyzed time horizon.

Biografía del autor/a

Glauco Oliveira Rodrigues, UFSM

Possui graduação em Redes de Computadores pela Universidade Federal de Santa Maria (2014). Mestrado em Administração pela Universidade Federal de Santa Maria(2016) e Doutorando pela Universidade Federal de Santa Maria. Tem experiência nas áreas de modelagem de sistemas de apoio a decisão e gestão da produção. Interesse em pesquisas na área da Pesquisa Operacional, Gestão Empresarial, Sustentabilidade, Energia Limpa e Carros Elétricos. Grupo de Pesquisa: MOOM - Modelagem em Gestão de Operações

André Munzlinger, Instituto Federal de Educação Ciência e Tecnologia Catarinense

Possui graduação em Comunicação Social - Jornalismo pela Universidade do Sul de Santa Catarina e também é pós-graduado em Produção em Comunicação pela Unoesc. Doutor em Administração pela Univali e mestre em Administração pela FURB. Atua como jornalista no Instituto Federal de Educação Ciência e Tecnologia Catarinense. Como professor, desenvolve atividades no Serviço Nacional de Aprendizagem Comercial - Senac e também na Universidade para o Desenvolvimento do Alto Vale do Itajaí - Unidavi. Realiza pesquisas sobre novas tecnologias de comunicação, disseminação do conhecimento científico através da mídia no Núcleo de Estudos em Comunicação, Cultura e Disseminação de Conhecimento. Participa do grupo de pesquisa Estratégia e Inovação.

Rafael Pereira Ocampo More, UFSC

Pesquisador da UFSC. Bacharel e Mestre em Administração pela UFSC (2008 e 2012) e Doutor em Administração do Programa de Pós-Graduação em Administração da Universidade do Vale do Itajaí (UNIVALI) 2016, com bolsa CAPES. Doutorado sanduíche (2013-2014) na Universidade Politécnica de Valência - UPV, Valência/Espanha (bolsa Capes). Realiza pesquisas em temas de Governança, Gestão da Educação, Inovação em Habitats de Inovação. Professor Permanente do Programa de Pós-graduação em Administração Universitária - PPGAU. Coordenador Geral da Universidade Aberta do Brasil na UFSC 2019-2023. Atual Coordenador Adjunto da UAB. Coordenador Geral da incubadora NOVUS/UFSC. Coordenador Administrativo e Financeiro do InPETU Hub, localizado no Sapiens Parque, em Florianópolis, SC.

Nanachara Carolina Sperb, Instituto Federal Catarinense (IFC)

Doutora em Comunicação e Linguagens, graduada em Comunicação Social - Jornalismo. Jornalista do Instituto Federal Catarinense (IFC). Tem experiência na área de Comunicação, atuando principalmente nos seguintes temas: mídias sociais, jornalismo digital, comunicação organizacional, marca e influência digital

Citas

ABVE - Brazilian Electric Vehicle Association (2020) . Aumento do número das vendas de carros elétricos no Brasil divulgado pela ABVE, available at: http://www.abve.org.br/noticias/carros-eletricos-ja-correpondem-a-19-das-vendas. Accessed on Oct 27, 2020.

Albatayneh, A., Assaf, M. N., Alterman, D., & Jaradat, M. (2020). Comparison of the overall energy efficiency for internal combustion engine vehicles and electric vehicles. Rigas Tehniskas Universitates Zinatniskie Raksti, 24(1), 669-680.

Bento, P. F. S. (2021). Gestão de dados sobre o consumo em autocarros elétricos (Doctoral dissertation, Universidade Fernando Pessoa (Portugal)).

Berard, S., Sanchez, M., & Wong, H. (2010). Implications of historical trends in the electrical efficiency of computing. IEEE Annals of the History of Computing, 33(3), 46-54.

Bhatti, G., Mohan, H., & Singh, R. R. (2021). Towards the future of smart electric vehicles: Digital twin technology. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 141, 110801.

Campatelli, G., Scippa, A., & Lorenzini, L. (2014). Workpiece orientation and tooling selection to reduce the environmental impact of milling operations. Procedia Cirp, 14, 575-580.

Chen, W., Liang, J., Yang, Z., & Li, G. (2019). A review of lithium-ion battery for electric vehicle applications and beyond. Energy Procedia, 158, 4363-4368.

Danielis, R., Giansoldati, M., & Rotaris, L. (2018). A probabilistic total cost of ownership model to evaluate the current and future prospects of electric cars uptake in Italy. Energy Policy, 119, 268-281.

Darabi, N., & Hosseinichimeh, N. (2020). System dynamics modeling in health and medicine: a systematic literature review. System Dynamics Review, 36(1), 29-73.

Deb, S., Tammi, K., Kalita, K., & Mahanta, P. (2018). Review of recent trends in charging infrastructure planning for electric vehicles. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Energy and Environment, 7(6), e306.

Delgado, F., Costa, J. E. G., Febraro, J., & Silva, T. D. F. B. D. (2017). Carros elétricos.

Dijk, N. P., Maute, K., Langelaar, M., & Van Keulen, F. (2013). Level-set methods for structural topology optimization: a review. Structural and Multidisciplinary Optimization, 48, 437-472.

Ehsani, M., Singh, K. V., Bansal, H. O., & Mehrjardi, R. T. (2021). State of the art and trends in electric and hybrid electric vehicles. Proceedings of the IEEE, 109(6), 967-984.

Ellingsen, L. A. W., Hung, C. R., & Strømman, A. H. (2017). Identifying key assumptions and differences in life cycle assessment studies of lithium-ion traction batteries with focus on greenhouse gas emissions. Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, 55, 82-90.

El-Saadawy, O., Gaber, A., Othman, A., Abotalib, A. Z., El Bastawesy, M., & Attwa, M. (2020). Modeling flash floods and induced recharge into alluvial aquifers using multi-temporal remote sensing and electrical resistivity imaging. Sustainability, 12(23), 10204.

Ercan, T., Onat, N. C., & Tatari, O. (2016). Investigating carbon footprint reduction potential of public transportation in United States: A system dynamics approach. Journal of cleaner production, 133, 1260-1276.

Ford, D. N. (2019). A system dynamics glossary. System dynamics review, 35(4), 369-379.

Ghofrani, M., Arabali, A., & Etezadi-Amoli, M. (2012, July). Electric drive vehicle to grid synergies with large scale wind resources. In 2012 IEEE Power and Energy Society General Meeting (pp. 1-6). IEEE.

Ghorbanzadeh, O., Moslem, S., Blaschke, T., & Duleba, S. (2018). Sustainable urban transport planning considering different stakeholder groups by an interval-AHP decision support model. Sustainability, 11(1), 9.

Goel, S., Sharma, R., & Rathore, A. K. (2021). A review on barrier and challenges of electric vehicle in India and vehicle to grid optimisation. Transportation engineering, 4, 100057.

Goldemberg, J., & Lucon, O. (2007). Energias renováveis: um futuro sustentável. Revista Usp, (72), 6-15.

Guerra, E. (2019). Electric vehicles, air pollution, and the motorcycle city: A stated preference survey of consumers’ willingness to adopt electric motorcycles in Solo, Indonesia. Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, 68, 52-64.

Guler, D., & Yomralioglu, T. (2020). Suitable location selection for the electric vehicle fast charging station with AHP and fuzzy AHP methods using GIS. Annals of GIS, 26(2), 169-189.

Holmberg, K., & Erdemir, A. (2019). The impact of tribology on energy use and CO2 emission globally and in combustion engine and electric cars. Tribology International, 135, 389-396.

Hu, G., Zeng, W., Yao, R., Xie, Y., & Liang, S. (2021). An integrated assessment system for the carrying capacity of the water environment based on system dynamics. Journal of environmental management, 295, 113045.

Jian, Z., Luo, W., & Ji, X. (2015). Carbon electrodes for K-ion batteries. Journal of the American chemical society, 137(36), 11566-11569.

Jiao, Z., Ran, L., Chen, J., Meng, H., & Li, C. (2017). Data-driven approach to operation and location considering range anxiety of one-way electric vehicles sharing system. Energy Procedia, 105, 2287-2294.

Kirkwood, A., & Price, L. (2013). Examining some assumptions and limitations of research on the effects of emerging technologies for teaching and learning in higher education. British Journal of Educational Technology, 44(4), 536-543.

Kucukoglu, I., Dewil, R., & Cattrysse, D. (2021). The electric vehicle routing problem and its variations: A literature review. Computers & Industrial Engineering, 161, 107650.

Lane, D. C., Munro, E., & Husemann, E. (2016). Blending systems thinking approaches for organisational analysis: Reviewing child protection in England. European Journal of Operational Research, 251(2), 613-623.

Lonan, E. S., & Ardi, R. (2020, December). Electric vehicle diffusion in the indonesian automobile market: A system dynamics modelling. In 2020 IEEE International Conference on Industrial Engineering and Engineering Management (IEEM) (pp. 43-47). IEEE.

Lu, L., Guo, X., & Zhao, J. (2017). A unified nonlocal strain gradient model for nanobeams and the importance of higher order terms. International Journal of Engineering Science, 119, 265-277.

Macioszek, E., & Kurek, A. (2021). Extracting road traffic volume in the city before and during COVID-19 through video remote sensing. Remote Sensing, 13(12), 2329.

Miskolczi, M., Földes, D., Munkácsy, A., & Jászberényi, M. (2021). Urban mobility scenarios until the 2030s. Sustainable Cities and Society, 72, 103029.

Nunes, P., Farias, T., & Brito, M. C. (2015). Day charging electric vehicles with excess solar electricity for a sustainable energy system. Energy, 80, 263-274.

Oliveira, S. A. (2022). Reinventando o esporte: possibilidades da prática pedagógica. Autores Associados.

Omonov, F. A. (2022). The important role of intellectual transport systems in increasing the economic efficiency of public transport services. Academic research in educational sciences, 3(3), 36-40.

Ornes, S. (2021). The tricky challenge holding back electric cars. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 118(26), e2109654118.

Pinto, J., Sverdrup, H. U., & Diemer, A. (2019). Integrating life cycle analysis into system dynamics: the case of steel in Europe. Environmental Systems Research, 8(1), 1-21.

Reddy, S., Chen, D., & Manning, C. D. (2019). Coqa: A conversational question answering challenge. Transactions of the Association for Computational Linguistics, 7, 249-266.

Rogge, M., Wollny, S., & Sauer, D. U. (2015). Fast charging battery buses for the electrification of urban public transport—a feasibility study focusing on charging infrastructure and energy storage requirements. Energies, 8(5), 4587-4606.

Romare, M., & Dahllöf, L. (2017). The life cycle energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions from lithium-ion batteries.

Sanguesa, J. A., Torres-Sanz, V., Garrido, P., Martinez, F. J., & Marquez-Barja, J. M. (2021). A review on electric vehicles: Technologies and challenges. Smart Cities, 4(1), 372-404.

SCOTT, Rodney J.; CAVANA, Robert Y.; CAMERON, Donald. Recent evidence on the effectiveness of group model building. European Journal of Operational Research, v. 249, n. 3, p. 908-918, 2016.

Secinaro, S., Brescia, V., Calandra, D., & Biancone, P. (2020). Employing bibliometric analysis to identify suitable business models for electric cars. Journal of cleaner production, 264, 121503.

Souza, C. C. R., & Hiroi, J. (2021). O Mercado de carros elétricos no Brasil: análise de entraves e sugestões para expansão. Práticas em Contabilidade e Gestão, 9(1), 1-19.

Sweeney, L. B., & Sterman, J. D. (2000). Bathtub dynamics: initial results of a systems thinking inventory. System Dynamics Review: The Journal of the System Dynamics Society, 16(4), 249-286.

Stokes, L. C., & Breetz, H. L. (2018). Politics in the US energy transition: Case studies of solar, wind, biofuels and electric vehicles policy. Energy Policy, 113, 76-86.

Thompson, J. P., Howick, S., & Belton, V. (2016). Critical Learning Incidents in system dynamics modelling engagements. European Journal of Operational Research, 249(3), 945-958.

Vianna, S. B., Garcia, M. G. P., & Szaniecki, Y. A. (2019). Tesla Motors: A introdução dos veículos elétricos nos EUA, seu impacto para a economia, bem como suas externalidades.

Wang, X., Li, B., Gerada, D., Huang, K., Stone, I., Worrall, S., & Yan, Y. (2022). A critical review on thermal management technologies for motors in electric cars. Applied Thermal Engineering, 201, 117758.

Weiss, M., Zerfass, A., & Helmers, E. (2019). Fully electric and plug-in hybrid cars-An analysis of learning rates, user costs, and costs for mitigating CO2 and air pollutant emissions. Journal of cleaner production, 212, 1478-1489.

Winebrake, J. J., Green, E. H., & Carr, E. (2017). Plug-in electric vehicles: economic impacts and employment growth. Energy and Environmental Research Associates.

Xiao, Y., & Konak, A. (2017). A genetic algorithm with exact dynamic programming for the green vehicle routing & scheduling problem. Journal of cleaner production, 167, 1450-1463.

Yilmaz, M., & Krein, P. T. (2012). Review of battery charger topologies, charging power levels, and infrastructure for plug-in electric and hybrid vehicles. IEEE transactions on Power Electronics, 28(5), 2151-2169.

Zhang, X., Li, Z., Luo, L., Fan, Y., & Du, Z. (2022). A review on thermal management of lithium-ion batteries for electric vehicles. Energy, 238, 121652.

Zhang, L., Hu, X., Wang, Z., Ruan, J., Ma, C., Song, Z., ... & Pecht, M. G. (2021). Hybrid electrochemical energy storage systems: An overview for smart grid and electrified vehicle applications. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 139, 110581.

Descargas

Publicado

2024-10-17

Cómo citar

Rodrigues, G. O., Munzlinger, A., More, R. P. O., & Sperb, N. C. (2024). System dynamics to analyze scenarios of electric cars insertion in brazilian cities. Revista Gestão & Tecnologia, 24(4), 7–38. https://doi.org/10.20397/2177-6652/2024.v24i4.2628

Número

Vol. 24 Núm. 4 (2024)

Sección

ARTIGO

Licencia

Derechos de autor 2024 Journal of Management & Technology

Creative Commons License

Esta obra está bajo una licencia internacional Creative Commons Atribución-NoComercial 4.0.

Os direitos, inclusive os de tradução, são reservados. É permitido citar parte de artigos sem autorização prévia desde que seja identificada a fonte. A reprodução total de artigos é proibida. Em caso de dúvidas, consulte o Editor.