The Temporal projections for strategic planning in human resources

Authors

  • César Antônio Ciuffo Moreira Universidade de Brasília - UnB

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.20397/2177-6652/2025.v25i5.3171

Keywords:

Time series, absenteeism, ARIMA, Holt-Winters, SARIMA, HR planning

Abstract

Objective: The objective of this study is to explore the use of time series projection models in predicting absenteeism within Human Resources (HR). It aims to compare dif- ferent models to improve organizational action planning and decision-making.

Methodology/Procedural Methods: This research employs a quantitative approach, using time series models such as ARIMA, Holt-Winters, and SARIMA. These models are applied to predict absenteeism in HR, demonstrating the strengths and limitations of each in the context of organizational planning.

Originality/Relevance: This study addresses the gap in the theoretical application of time series projections within the HR field, specifically focusing on absenteeism prediction. It contributes to the academic relevance by providing insights into the practical utility of time series models for HR decision-making, an area that has not been extensively explored. Main Results: The results indicate that time series projection is a powerful tool for improving HR decision-making, offering valuable insights into absenteeism trends and or- ganizational productivity. The comparison of ARIMA, Holt-Winters, and SARIMA models

highlights their respective advantages and limitations.

Theoretical/Methodological Contributions: This study provides significant contribu- tions by comparing various time series models in the context of absenteeism prediction. It offers a clear understanding of which model performs best in specific HR scenarios and provides metrics for evaluating success.

Social/Managerial Contributions: The findings have direct implications for HR man- agers, providing them with actionable tools to predict absenteeism and plan more effec- tively, thereby improving organizational productivity and mitigating potential challenges.

Keywords: Time series, absenteeism, ARIMA, Holt-Winters, SARIMA, HR planning

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Published

2025-12-19

How to Cite

Ciuffo Moreira, C. A. (2025). The Temporal projections for strategic planning in human resources . Revista Gestão & Tecnologia, 25(5), 10–53. https://doi.org/10.20397/2177-6652/2025.v25i5.3171

Issue

Vol. 25 No. 5 (2025)

Section

ARTIGO

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