Impact of population aging on the economic growth rate: analysis among groups of countries members of the ECLAC and OECD

Authors

  • Licia Laura Craveiro de Souza Queiroz Fucape Business School
  • Newton Paulo Bueno Fucape Business School

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.20397/2177-6652/2020.v20i2.1765

Keywords:

envelhecimento populacional, taxa de crescimento econômico, bônus demográfico, finanças públicas

Abstract

O objetivo deste trabalho é estudar o impacto do envelhecimento populacional sobre a taxa de crescimento econômico. Nos países desenvolvidos, o envelhecimento tem afetado o crescimento do PIB real, mas há sinais de que pode também estar afetando o crescimento em países em desenvolvimento. A amostra de dados foi composta por 53 países, com 19 pertencentes à CEPAL e 34 pertencentes à OCDE, no período de 2002 a 2014. Os resultados indicam que o envelhecimento tem afetado negativamente o crescimento nos países mais desenvolvidos, caso dos países pertencentes à OCDE. Para os pertencentes à CEPAL, não se detectou relação estatisticamente significativa entre as variáveis. A provável explicação é que estes países possuem ainda algum bônus demográfico, o que minimiza o impacto negativo sobre o crescimento econômico. Espera-se contribuir com o debate sobre o impacto do envelhecimento populacional no crescimento econômico e os reflexos nas finanças públicas dos países nesse cenário.

Author Biographies

Licia Laura Craveiro de Souza Queiroz, Fucape Business School

Mestra em Ciências Contábeis

Newton Paulo Bueno, Fucape Business School

Doutor em Teoria Econômica

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Published

2020-05-14

How to Cite

de Souza Queiroz, L. L. C., & Bueno, N. P. (2020). Impact of population aging on the economic growth rate: analysis among groups of countries members of the ECLAC and OECD. Journal of Management & Technology, 20(2), 7–27. https://doi.org/10.20397/2177-6652/2020.v20i2.1765

Issue

Vol. 20 No. 2 (2020): Abril/Junho

Section

ARTIGO

License

Copyright (c) 2020 Journal of Management & Technology

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