METHODS FOR ASSESSING LOW PROFITABILITY RISKS OF AN INVESTMENT PROJECT IN CONDITIONS OF UNCERTAINTY

Resumo

The article discusses the methodological approach and methods for assessing the risks of decreasing the net present value (NPV) compared to its expected value, based on the NPV representation as a complex random variable with known parameters of its distribution. It is substantiated that this NPV representation is a consequence of random conditions for the implementation of investment projects, their financial inflows and outflows, as well as discounts. According to the law of large numbers, it is advisable to consider the NPV distribution as normal. Based on the NPV expansion into the Taylor series at the point of its mathematical expectation (expected value), an analytical expression for the NPV dispersion is obtained as a function of the expected values and dispersions of financial flows and discounts. The authors of the article discuss the possibilities of assessing these NPV characteristics based on available project statistics and expert data. Depending on the attitude to risk, possible indicators of the risks of an investment project can be the average risk of a decrease in the NPV or any quantile of its decrease with due regard to the distribution parameters of this indicator limited from above by its mathematical expectation. The proposed approach to assessing the risks of reducing the efficiency of investment projects is characterized by less subjectivity compared to its analogs based on the methods of varying the discount rate and reliable equivalents