Adaptive Management Approaches in ASEAN Economies: Navigating Inflation, Unemployment, and Economic Growth Dynamics

Resumo

The primary objective of this study is to explore the impact of inflation and unemployment on the economic growth of ASEAN countries. This investigation employs panel data and utilizes the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model for estimation and result analysis. The study employs the test for cointegration to establish the presence of a long-term relationship in the model. Consequently, both long-term and short-term ARDL models are estimated. The long-term results reveal a significant and negative impact of inflation and unemployment on economic growth in ASEAN countries. In the short term, unemployment and inflation are found to have different effects on economic growth in ASEAN countries. Based on these findings, it is recommended that authorities should prioritize credible inflation-targeting policies, while the government should create opportunities to enhance the skills and capacity of the population.