Risks for the sustainable economic development of the volga federal district in the context of sanctions imposed on import supplies

Marat Safiullin, Leonid Yelshin, Almaz Mingulov

Resumo


The study aims to develop and test methodological approaches to the predictive assessment of the GRP of the Volga Federal District in the context of disruption of transnational import supply chains. The main research methods are correlation and regression analysis which form the basis for seeking relationships between ongoing changes in the regional economic sectors and the GRP. To cumulatively assess the impact of possible economic changes in the Volga Federal District on the formation of the GDP in the Russian Federation, the authors use structural analysis. The study results show the specifics of the economic growth of the Volga Federal District and their aggregate impact on the possible correction of the national economy of Russia in the context of limited supplies of critical imports. The estimates determine a possible slowdown in GDP dynamics by 0.17% within the framework of the projected values of the Volga Federal District's economic growth per the simulated restrictions on transnational supply chains. The most vulnerable to disturbances in foreign economic relations are industrial regions. The expected decrease in the GRP is estimated in the context of systemic transformations (about 1.4%), as opposed to regions with a less industrial economic structure.


Palavras-chave


Import substitution; Sustainability of economic growth; Forecasting; Simulation modeling; Adaptation mechanisms

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Referências


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DOI: https://doi.org/10.20397/2177-6652/2023.v23i4.2690

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